Pending sales in Western Washington rise with improved affordability, buyer incentives

KIRKLAND, WA, May 5, 2009 –Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported pending sales for April surged 11.4 percent compared to twelve months ago – and rose 21.3 percent from March.

Brokers reported 6,918 pending sales during April across the 19 counties that make up the Northwest MLS market area. That’s up from the year-ago total of 6,208, and the March figure of 5,701 pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed).

For the four-county Puget Sound area (King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish), brokers notched 5,372 pending sales, the highest total since August 2007 and a jump of 26 percent from March.

Inventory is shrinking and prices are showing some signs of stabilizing, according to data in the latest report from Northwest MLS. The median price for last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums area-wide was $270,000. That matched the figure for March, but still lagged prices of a year ago (down 12.9 percent).

Inventory is down 18.3 percent from year-ago levels, with Clark, Kitsap and Pierce reporting the largest drops. Members added 10,824 new listings of single family homes and condos to inventory last month, down almost 20.5 percent from the year-ago total of 13,607 new listings.

Lower prices, record low mortgage interest rates, improving consumer confidence, the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit and other incentives for buyers are credited with spurring activity. Industry officials, noting activity is quite strong in the lower, more affordable price ranges, hesitate to declare a housing recovery is under way:

• Dropping inventories and rising affordability are positive signs, according to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The housing market may be edging toward a bottom,” he stated.
• “April was a good market for new pending sales; we seem to be moving to a more balanced market,” said NWMLS director Meribeth Hutchings, broker/owner of Windermere Real Estate/Lake Stevens, Inc.
• “We need several months of sustained growth to demonstrate a recovery in housing, which is necessary for the overall economy to turn around,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, described the market as “bifurcated.”

“Sales are up and prices have stabilized in the more affordable market,” he explained, while noting the mid- to upper-end markets are experiencing entirely different conditions.

NWMLS director Kathy Estey agreed. “We had our best month since September,” she commented, but said sales of homes priced at $1 million or more are still slow compared to the pace of a few years ago. Estey, the managing broker at John L. Scott’s downtown Bellevue office, said sales of high-end homes lag in part due to limited availability of mortgages for homes priced above conforming loan limits. (The median asking price for homes currently offered for sale in West Bellevue, a market served by Estey’s office, is more than $1.5 million.)

Another MLS director reported a “terrific increase” in first-time buyer activity in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods, calling it the best it’s been in almost two years.

“We just had five offers on a Ravenna house priced around $400,000 and it sold for considerably more than the list price,” said Mike Skahen, the broker at Lake & Company. He also said another one of his agents represented a client whose offer beat out 10 competitors. “I hope we’re seeing the start of the spring selling season,” something he said was lacking last year for the first time since starting his real estate career 33 years ago.

In King County, pending sales of single family homes (excluding condos) rose more than 25 percent from March. Of six “sub-areas” the MLS tracks within the county, North King County (encompassing Shoreline, Lake Forest Park and Kenmore) and the Eastside areas had the strongest month-to-month gains. Compared to March, pending sales of single family homes for April shot up nearly 52 percent in the North King County map areas, and rose more than 35 percent on the Eastside.

Prices for sales of single family homes and condos that closed last month in King County continued to lag year-ago totals (down 15.3 percent), but edged up from March (up 4.5 percent). For single family homes (excluding condos), the median selling price for April’s sales was $350,000, up 4.4 percent from March.

Condominium sales area-wide were down about 7.5 percent from a year ago, but up significantly (40.8 percent) from the previous month. In King County, which accounts for about six of every 10 condo sales, pending sales were down 8.1 percent from a year ago, but jumped nearly 42 percent from March.

Tacoma broker Dick Beeson of Windermere/Commencement Associates also reports the market there is warming up, evidenced in part by increased traffic at open houses and phone calls. Many first-time buyers are still unaware of the $8,000 tax credit, according to Beeson, who says it is stimulating marginal interest. “It is almost a serendipity to first-time buyers when they discover they qualify.”

“Most everyone recognizes that real estate in our region is ‘on sale,’ and that’s certainly validated in the latest report,” stated Ron Sparks, managing vice president at Coldwell Banker Bain. Buyer demand has increased to 2006 levels in some notable area neighborhoods, according to an analysis by Sparks, who tempered his optimism by saying, “For the scale between buyers and sellers to balance, it’s important that buyer demand begin to increase so prices can stabilize. The MLS report and comments from agents in the field tell us we’re seeing some progress in that direction.”

Sparks also said in his experience, “highly advantageous buyer markets are pretty rare,” so when they appear, he’s inclined to advise people confident in their financial position to take advantage of it. He extends such advice to his own children, he admitted, noting one of them just closed escrow and another just made her first offer.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it should take a few months for the market to gain momentum. “This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions and an $8,000 tax credit, which increases buying power even more in areas where special programs allow buyers to use it as a downpayment,” he said in commenting on a new report from NAR that showed a nationwide rise in pending sales for March.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member brokers, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes approximately 28,000 brokers and agents. The organization, based in Kirkland, currently serves 19 counties in western and central Washington.

Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary – April 2009

4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (SFH + Condo combined)
(Totals include King, Snohomish, Pierce & Kitsap counties)

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