Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 785 Closed Sales
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Spring break arrived this week across the majority of King and Snohomish County school districts — the same week it fell in 2025. That context is essential for reading this week's pending and closed sales numbers accurately. What is not seasonal is inventory, which set another 2026 high, and MOI, which crossed a threshold not seen in early spring since 2011.
If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA
📌 WHAT'S COVERED THIS WEEK
💰 INTEREST RATES — 6.38% | ↓ Down from last week's 6.45% | ↓ Down 0.47% year over year
Rates edged down slightly to 6.38% — a modest improvement from last week and down 0.47% compared to this same week one year ago. While rates spiked as much as 0.65 points above pre-conflict levels, they have partially recovered and currently sit 0.39 points above where they were before the conflict began — still a meaningful headwind for buyer qualification and monthly carrying costs.🏡 ACTIVE LISTINGS — 1,178 | ↑ Up 7.3% from last week | ↑ Up 58.5% year over year
Active listings climbed to 1,178 this week — another 2026 high, and up 58.5% from the 743 homes on the market during the same spring break week in 2025. Inventory continues to build regardless of the seasonal calendar.📝 PENDING SALES — 86 | ↓ Down 20.4% from last week | ↓ Down 26.5% year over year
Pending sales fell to 86 this week. Spring break is the primary driver of that weekly decline — buyer activity reliably softens when families are traveling. The more meaningful comparison is year over year: during the same spring break week in 2025, pending sales were 117. This year they came in at 86 — down 26.5% on an apples-to-apples basis. That gap reflects more than the seasonal calendar.📦 MONTHS OF INVENTORY — 3.16 | ↑ Up 34.7% from last week's 2.35 | ↑ Up 115.7% year over year
At 3.16, this week's MOI is the highest reading for this time of year — early April — in this data set since 2011. Fall and winter months have reached similar or higher levels in 2022 and 2025, but never in spring. Two factors are at work simultaneously: inventory continues to rise, and spring break suppressed pending sales, which mathematically pushes MOI higher. The underlying trend was already moving in this direction before spring break. It would be premature to characterize 3.16 as the new baseline — with several school districts still on break next week, inventory will continue to build seasonally and buyer activity will remain somewhat suppressed. A cleaner read on where April is settling will require another week or two of data. What the data does confirm is that MOI has crossed into the upper range of balanced market territory, defined locally as 2 to 4 months. During the same spring break week in 2025, MOI stood at 1.47. We are 115.7% above that today.🏠 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,579,000 | ↑ Up 1.9% from last week | ↓ Down 8.1% year over year
The 30-day rolling median ticked up modestly to $1,579,000 but remains 8.1% below the $1,718,000 recorded at this same point in 2025. The weekly closed median of $1,640,000 reflects a thin sales sample during spring break and should not be read as a trend signal on its own.🔍 THE BIG PICTURE — WHAT THIS ALL MEANS
This week's data requires careful interpretation. Spring break compressed buyer activity — as it always does — and that shows clearly in the pending and closed numbers. What is not a seasonal artifact is the continued climb in active inventory, now at 1,178 and up 58.5% year over year even on a spring break comparison. MOI at 3.16 is partially elevated by the seasonal pending dip, but even at last week's non-spring-break reading of 2.35, the market was already firmly in balanced territory. With spring break continuing across several districts next week, inventory will keep building seasonally. What is confirmed today: the conditions buyers and sellers are navigating — measured by MOI — reflect more balanced market dynamics than at any point since 2011.🏠 FOR SELLERS
With 58.5% more competition on the market than a year ago — even during spring break — pricing discipline is the single most important decision you will make. Homes priced accurately against today's comparable sales — not 2025 peaks, and not even the partial recovery readings from January and February 2026 — are still selling well, while overpriced listings are sitting longer and often requiring reductions that erode both value and negotiating position. We have done extensive analysis on exactly what this market shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market — if you are considering a move, we would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.🔑 FOR BUYERS
Buyers today have more negotiating leverage for this time of year — spring — than at any point since 2011. More choices, more time to conduct proper due diligence, and more room for thoughtful negotiation than buyers have experienced in years. Well-priced homes are still moving, so arriving pre-approved and prepared remains essential — but the frantic, no-contingency environment of recent years has given way to more measured conditions where preparation and patience are rewarded.If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA
