🏡 Flat Demand, Rising Supply, and More Inventory Than Even Last Year’s Disrupted Market | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 05-06-26

Tony Meier & Team's Weekly Market Update 3 Min. Read [audio mp3="https://eastsidehomes.com/wp-content/uploads/Eastside-Real-Estate-Market-Update-5-6-26.mp3"][/audio] 🏡 Flat Demand, Rising Supply, and More Inventory Than Even Last Year's Disrupted Market | Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Update 05-06-26 Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 789 Closed Eastside Sales Spring break is behind us and the seasonal distortions have cleared. What remains is a market in a steady, measurable drift — more supply each week, flat demand, and Months of Inventory climbing at a pace not seen at this time of year since 2011. 📌 WHAT'S COVERED THIS WEEK 💰 INTEREST RATES — 6.44% | → Essentially flat from last week | ↓ Down 0.44% year over year Rates held essentially flat at 6.44% this week — down just one basis point from last week and down 0.44% compared to this same week one year ago. The year-over-year tailwind remains intact, but rates continue to hover near the post-conflict range rather than recovering toward pre-conflict levels. The 0.45-point spread above the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99% remains a meaningful headwind for buyer qualification. 🏡 ACTIVE LISTINGS — 1,491 | ↑ Up 6.3% from last week | ↑ Up 37.7% year over year Active listings reached 1,491 this week — another 2026 high and up 37.7% from the 1,083 homes on the market during the comparable week in 2025. Active listings have climbed steadily throughout 2026, with this week setting a new high. The inventory build is consistent and showing no sign of plateauing. 📝 PENDING SALES — 128 | → Flat for the fourth consecutive week | ↓ Down 12.9% year over year Pending sales came in at 128 for the fourth consecutive week — holding in a narrow range of 125 to 128 since mid-April. The demand signal has gone flat. Buyers are writing contracts at a consistent but unchanged pace while supply continues to expand around them. Year over year, pending is down 12.9% from the 147 recorded during the comparable week in 2025. 📦 MONTHS OF INVENTORY — 2.69 | ↑ Up 6.3% from last week's 2.53 | ↑ Up 58.1% year over year MOI reached 2.69 this week — continuing the steady climb that has defined 2026 since February. The non-spring-break weekly progression tells the story clearly: 1.66 pre-conflict in late February, crossing 2.0 for the first time in March, 2.35 in early April, 2.43 and 2.53 in the two weeks following spring break, and now 2.69 to open May. Each post-spring-break week has set a new high. For additional context, the full month of May 2025 — during the tariff disruption — averaged 2.12. We are already at 2.69 in the first week of May 2026, above where that entire disrupted month landed last year. MOI remains in balanced market territory, defined locally as 2 to 4 months, and sits 58.1% above the 1.70 recorded during the comparable week in 2025. 🏠 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,562,000 | ↓ Down 0.8% from last week | ↓ Down 5.3% year over year The 30-day median eased slightly to $1,562,000 — down 0.8% from last week and 5.3% below the $1,650,000 recorded at this same point in 2025. The weekly closed median of $1,450,000 reflects a sample of 105 closed sales and should be read alongside the 30-day figure rather than in isolation. The 30-day trend is the more reliable price signal and it continues to run below year-ago levels. 🔍 THE BIG PICTURE — WHAT THIS ALL MEANS The clearest story this week is the combination of flat pending and rising inventory. For four consecutive weeks, pending sales have held in a narrow range of 125 to 128 — a stable demand signal that is simply not keeping pace with supply. Active listings set a new 2026 high again. Months of Inventory climbed again. The 30-day median eased again. These are not dramatic week-over-week moves — they are a consistent, data-supported drift in one direction. The market that sellers are navigating in May 2026 is measurably more challenging than May 2025, which was itself a disrupted year. Accurate pricing remains the primary lever available to sellers who want to transact rather than accumulate days on market. 🏠 FOR SELLERS With 37.7% more competition on the market than a year ago and demand flat for four consecutive weeks, pricing discipline is the single most important decision you will make. Homes priced accurately against today's comparable sales — not 2025 peaks, and not the partial recovery readings from January or February 2026 — are still selling, while overpriced listings are sitting longer and often requiring reductions that erode both value and negotiating position. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home. 🔑 FOR BUYERS Buyers today have more negotiating leverage for this time of year than at any point since 2011. Four consecutive weeks of stable pending numbers confirm that well-priced homes are still attracting offers — but the expanded supply means buyers have more choices, more time for due diligence, and more room for thoughtful negotiation than at any spring in the past decade. Arriving pre-approved and prepared remains essential. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA