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🏡 A Record Month Closes — What the Data Shows Heading Into April | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 04-01-26
Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 784 Closed Eastside Sales
Last week we flagged three market milestones arriving simultaneously. This week, the March data closed — and the record we signaled is now official. Here is what the data shows as we head into April.
📌 WHAT’S COVERED THIS WEEK
💰 INTEREST RATES — 6.45% | ↓ Slight dip from last week | Still up ~0.49% since the Iran conflict began
Rates pulled back just slightly this week — from 6.48% to 6.45% — offering a modest reprieve but no meaningful shift in buyer affordability. The cumulative damage from the nearly half-point spike since the onset of the Iran conflict remains intact. On a $1.5M home, buyers are still carrying roughly $450–$500 more per month than they were in late February. Year over year, rates are down 0.26% — a tailwind that exists on paper but is being overshadowed by the near-term spike.
🏡 ACTIVE LISTINGS — 1,098 | ↑ Up 6.7% from last week | ↑ Up 63% year over year
Inventory added another 69 homes in a single week — a significant weekly gain that pushes active listings to levels the Eastside typically doesn’t see until midsummer. Last week we noted we had crossed the 10-year July peak average of 1,027. We are now 7% above it and climbing. For context, at this same point in 2025, there were 674 active listings. We are running 63% above that today, with no indication the pace of new listings is slowing.
📝 PENDING SALES — 108 | Essentially flat from last week | ↓ Down 10.7% year over year
Pending sales ticked up by just one from last week’s 107 — effectively unchanged — and continue to run nearly 11% below where they were at this time last year. Supply is surging while demand growth has stalled. That combination is what drives MOI higher and is the defining dynamic of this market right now.
📦 MONTHS OF INVENTORY — 2.35 | ↑ Up 5.7% from last week’s 2.22 | ↑ Up 82.5% year over year
The March record is now official — the highest March MOI since 2011, confirmed across 20 years of data. March 2011 recorded 3.35 months; every March from 2012 through 2025 came in below 2.0. This week’s first April reading comes in at 2.35. We are now solidly in balanced market territory — defined locally as 2 to 4 months. A year ago at this time, MOI stood at 1.29. We are 82.5% above that today.
🏠 MEDIAN SOLD PRICE (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,550,000 | ↓ Down ~1% from last week | ↓ Down 9.5% year over year
The 30-day median continues to ease. At $1,550,000 it remains well off the $1,697,500 recorded at this time in 2025. Near-term prices are not collapsing — accurately priced, well-prepared homes are still transacting — but the sustained year-over-year gap is a clear signal that the pricing environment of 2025 is not the benchmark sellers should be working from today.
🔍 THE BIG PICTURE — WHAT THIS ALL MEANS
The story this week is one of confirmation. The three milestones we documented last week have not softened — they have deepened:
1. The March MOI record is now locked in — the highest March MOI since 2011, with this week’s first April reading coming in at 2.35.
2. Inventory at 1,098 is 63% above last year — we are in midsummer supply conditions during the first week of April.
3. Buyers remain active, and the expanded inventory is giving them more options than they have had in years — pending sales are essentially flat week over week and down nearly 11% year over year, with rates still elevated from the Iran conflict spike.
None of this means the market has stopped working. Well-priced homes with strong preparation are still selling. But the margin for strategic error — on pricing, timing, and presentation — has narrowed considerably compared to anything sellers experienced in 2023, 2024, or early 2025.
With 37 years of experience navigating every cycle this region has produced, I have watched data like this arrive quietly before most people feel it. The buyers and sellers who act on accurate information now will be better positioned than those who wait for the broader consensus to catch up.
🏠 FOR SELLERS
With 63% more competition on the market than a year ago, pricing discipline is the single most important decision you will make. Homes priced accurately against today’s comparable sales — not 2025 peaks, and not even the partial recovery readings from January and February 2026 — are still selling well, while overpriced listings are sitting longer and often requiring reductions that erode both value and negotiating position. We have done extensive analysis on exactly what this market shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market — if you are considering a move, we would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.
🔑 FOR BUYERS
This is the most inventory-rich spring market the Eastside has seen in over a decade, and that works in your favor. More choices, more time to conduct proper due diligence, and more room for thoughtful negotiation than buyers have had in years. Well-priced homes are still moving, so arriving pre-approved and prepared remains essential — but the frantic, no-contingency environment of recent years has given way to more measured conditions where preparation and patience are rewarded.
If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here.
Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA
We are testing out a new delivery method this week in audio format.
