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Last week we flagged that this reading would carry Labor Day distortion, and it arrived on schedule. Pending sales fell to 94, down 27.7% from last week, following the exact holiday script Memorial Day and July 4 wrote earlier this year. MOI spiked to 4.46 on the suppressed pending number. Set those two aside until next week's clean data. The real news is rates: up another 6 basis points to 6.97%, a second consecutive new 2026 high, now knocking on the 7% door for the first time since spring 2025. And quietly, the 30-day median posted a fourth straight week at $1,560,000, landing exactly even with last year to the dollar.
💰 Interest Rates — 6.97% | ↑ Up 6 bp from last week's 6.91% | ↑ Up 0.68% year over year
Rates climbed to 6.97% this week, up 6 basis points from last week and a second consecutive new 2026 high. Rates now sit 0.68% above the comparable week in 2025 and 0.98 points above the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99%. The last time weekly rates printed higher was late May 2025, when they reached 6.98%. On a $1.5M home, this week's rate represents roughly $980 more per month in carrying costs than buyers faced in late February. Two consecutive weeks of sharp increases totaling 22 basis points is the steepest two-week rate climb since the conflict-driven surge in March, and it is the number to watch as the fall market takes shape.
🏡 Active Listings — 1,821 | ↓ Down 1.3% from last week | ↑ Up 38.8% year over year
Active listings slipped to 1,821 this week, down 1.3% from last week and the sixth consecutive week below the July 29 high of 1,923. The seasonal decline is established: down 5.3% from the peak over six weeks, with the pace quickening. Year over year, inventory sits 38.8% above the 1,312 recorded during the comparable week in 2025. Selection remains historically wide, and holiday weeks add few new listings, so expect the count to keep easing.
📝 Pending Sales — 94 | ↓ Down 27.7% from last week | ↓ Down 32.9% year over year
Pending sales fell to 94 this week, down 27.7% from last week's 130. This is the Labor Day effect we flagged in advance, and it followed the established holiday script: Memorial Day week suppressed pending to 113, the July 4 week to 72, and both rebounded the following week. The year-over-year comparison is doubly distorted this time: Labor Day fell September 1 last year, so the 2025 comparable week was their post-holiday rebound at 140, making this week's negative 32.9% gap the mirror image of last week's flattered positive 39.8%. Neither number describes underlying demand. The trailing five-week pending average of 111 remains the reliable read, and next week's data will show whether the three-week firming streak that preceded the holiday resumes.
📦 Months of Inventory — 4.46 | ↑ Up 36.5% from last week's 3.26 | ↑ Up 106.0% year over year
MOI spiked to 4.46 this week, up 36.5% from last week's 3.26. This is the sixth reading above 4 this year, and like the Memorial Day and July 4 spikes before it, it is holiday-driven: the calculation divides active listings by a temporarily suppressed pending count. The trailing five-week average of 3.92 is the honest gauge, and it sits in upper balanced territory, right where the market has hovered since midsummer. If the post-holiday pattern repeats, expect MOI to fall back below 4 next week.
🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,560,000 | → Flat for a fourth week | → Even 0.0% year over year
The 30-day median held at $1,560,000 for a fourth consecutive week, and this week it landed exactly even with the $1,560,000 recorded at this same point in 2025, a 0.0% year-over-year change to the dollar. Four identical weekly readings through a rate surge and a holiday is a remarkable display of price stability. The caveat we detailed in mid-August still applies: per-square-foot values run softer than the headline, with larger homes carrying the mix. Closed sales came in at 69, down 15.9% from the 82 recorded during the comparable week in 2025, typical of a holiday closing week.
🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means
The holiday noise will clear next week, so this week's real story is the rate trajectory. At 6.97%, rates have climbed 22 basis points in two weeks and now sit within a single basis point of the May 2025 high-water mark. The July pattern showed rate spikes cooling demand with a several-week lag, and that spike was smaller than this one. Against that headwind stand the trends that were building before the holiday: three straight weeks of rising pending, accelerating inventory decline, MOI falling toward mid-balanced, and a median that has not moved in a month and now matches last year exactly. The next two to three weeks of clean data will show whether the fall market's early momentum can absorb near-7% financing, or whether the lag catches up. That is the question that will define September.
🏠 For Sellers
Sellers, look past this week's holiday-distorted demand numbers; the pre-holiday trend was three straight weeks of rising pending, and your competition has declined six consecutive weeks. The genuine risk is the rate trajectory. At 6.97%, buyers are absorbing the highest financing costs since May 2025, and the July precedent says demand feels rate spikes on a lag. If you are planning a fall listing, this remains the historically strong window, but the margin for pricing error narrows as rates rise. Price to current per-square-foot comparables and present impeccably; the buyers still active at these rates are serious, and they are the ones your pricing needs to convince.
We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.
🔑 For Buyers
Buyers, ignore the holiday-week numbers and focus on the two that matter: 6.97% and 1,821. The first is your financing cost, a basis point from the May 2025 high, and it makes stress-testing your qualification the immediate priority. If near-7% rates strain your target price range, this is the week to talk with your lender about buydowns, adjustable products, or adjusting the search. The second is selection, still 38.8% wider than last year but shrinking six weeks running. Prices, meanwhile, are giving you nothing to wait for: flat for a month and dead even with last year. The leverage you hold is real, but it is financing-constrained leverage in a narrowing window, and the sooner your rate strategy is settled, the more of that leverage you can actually use.
If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here.
Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA
