🏡 Fall Arrives on Schedule: Listings Turn Down, Rates Hit 7.63%, Prices Off 9.5% | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 10-07-26

5 Min. Read Audio Version Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 805 Closed Eastside Sales The fall turn arrived on schedule. Active listings fell 3.1% to 1,917, the first decline after three straight weekly records and the largest one-week drop in listings this year. Pending sales rose to 101, above a year ago for the first clean week since late August. Months of inventory eased to 4.36 but held above 4 for a third consecutive week, the longest buyer-favored stretch of 2026. Rates climbed to 7.63%, a sixth straight high and the most expensive financing since November 1st, 2023. The rolling median held at $1,430,000, 9.5% below a year ago.

💰 Interest Rates — 7.63%

↑ Up 9 bp from last week's 7.54%  |  ↑ Up 1.27% year over year Rates rose another 9 basis points to 7.63%, a sixth consecutive 2026 high and the highest reading since November 1st, 2023, when the 30-year sat at 7.75% on its way down from the 8.00% peak. The climb since August 19th now totals 91 basis points over seven weeks. On a $1.5 million purchase, 7.63% costs roughly $1,640 more per month than the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99% and about $1,280 more than the 6.36% buyers saw a year ago. The increase did slow, from 28 basis points last week to 9, the first hint of a plateau, but one week is not a trend.

🏡 Active Listings — 1,917

↓ Down 3.1% from last week  |  ↑ Up 48.4% year over year Active listings fell 61 to 1,917, down 3.1% from last week's record 1,978 and the largest one-week decline in listings this year. The timing is normal. In each of the past five years the count fell at the turn of October, and from the seasonal peak to year end it dropped between 54% and 80%, with the past four years clustered at 54% to 57%. The level is what is not normal. Inventory remains 48.4% above the 1,292 of a year ago, and even a typical seasonal decline would leave December with more homes on the market than any year end in our six-year weekly series.

📝 Pending Sales — 101

↑ Up 6.3% from last week  |  ↑ Up 5.2% year over year Pending sales rose to 101, up 6.3% from last week's 95 and 5.2% above the 96 of a year ago. That breaks the four-week clean-week slide from 130 to 117 to 108 to 95, and it is the first year-over-year gain in a non-holiday week since August 26th. The five-week average of 103 is still the lowest since mid-March, so this is a stabilization, not a surge. Buyers who stepped back as rates jumped appear to be re-engaging at the new prices.

📦 Months of Inventory — 4.36

↓ Down 8.8% from last week's 4.79  |  ↑ Up 40.5% year over year MOI eased to 4.36, down 8.8% from last week's 4.79 but 40.5% above the 3.11 of a year ago. More importantly, this is the third consecutive clean week above 4 (4.20, 4.79, 4.36), the longest buyer-favored stretch of 2026 and the ninth reading above 4 this year. The five-week average sits at 4.34. Both components moved the right way for sellers this week, fewer listings and more pendings, yet the market remains comfortably on the buyer's side of the line.

🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,430,000

→ Essentially flat from last week's $1,432,500  |  ↓ Down 9.5% year over year The rolling 30-day median held at $1,430,000, within $2,500 of last week and 9.5% below the $1,580,000 of a year ago. The slide since summer is now clear in the weekly data: the median ran near $1.6 million from late July through mid August and has sat in the low $1.4 millions since early September, a decline of roughly 10%. A 30-day median moves with the mix of homes that close, so part of that is composition, but the monthly NWMLS series, which is built differently, points the same direction: August closed at $1.45 million, 6% below August 2025. Closed sales came in at 103, down 6.4% from last week and 17.0% above the 88 of a year ago.

🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means

Supply has begun its seasonal retreat and demand has steadied, which is why MOI pulled back from 4.79. But the level of inventory, the price of money, and the price trend all still favor buyers. Three clean weeks above 4 confirm what the last two suggested, and a median 9.5% below last year says the repricing is no longer a forecast. The fourth quarter turns on two questions: whether this week's 9 basis point move is the start of a plateau near 7.6%, and how much of the 1,917 clears before the holidays. History says about half the peak count is gone by Christmas, and the homes that sell will be the ones priced to today's comparables, not August's.

🏠 For Sellers

Sellers, the first sign of seasonal relief is here, and it changes your competition, not your price. Fewer listings each week through December means less noise around your home, but the buyers who remain are paying 7.63% for their money and watching a median down 9.5% from a year ago. They will not pay last year's price to save you from this year's market. Price to the newest per-square-foot closings in your sub-market, present the home at its best from day one, and be ready to meet the first serious buyer rather than wait for a second. Soft stretches here have not been permanent (the 2023 decline was followed by a double-digit gain in 2024), but pricing to the old market is how a soft season becomes a long one. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.

🔑 For Buyers

Buyers, the window is open but starting to narrow. Inventory is still 48% above last year, prices are running 9.5% below, and MOI has held above 4 for three straight weeks, so your negotiating position remains the strongest of 2026. What changed this week is the direction of supply: listings fell 61, and history says the decline accelerates through November, with the best homes clearing first. Solve the rate before you tour, because at 7.63% buydowns, adjustable products, and seller-paid lender credits are worth more than at any point in years, then move on the right house while the choice is wide. The rate can be refinanced. The price you negotiate now cannot. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA Source: NWMLS listing data, compiled and analyzed by Tony Meier & Team through Eastside Market Watch. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.