🏡 Rates Take Their First Step Back as MOI Holds Above 4 for a Fourth Week | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 10-14-26

5 Min. Read Audio Version Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 807 Closed Eastside Sales Rates finally took a step back. The 30-year fixed eased 7 basis points to 7.56%, the first weekly decline since August 19th, though it remains the second-highest reading since November 2023. The rest of the week carried a holiday footprint. The Columbus Day week has pulled pending sales lower in each of the past five years, and it did again: pending fell to 90, closings to 78, and months of inventory jumped to 4.87, its fourth consecutive week above 4. Active listings slipped to 1,906, a second straight decline, and the rolling median fell to $1,405,000, 10.4% below a year ago.

💰 Interest Rates — 7.56%

↓ Down 7 bp from last week's 7.63%  |  ↑ Up 1.29% year over year Rates eased to 7.56%, down 7 basis points and the first weekly decline in eight weeks. The climb from 6.72% on August 19th to last week's 7.63% totaled 91 basis points; this week gives back 7 of them. Even so, 7.56% is above every weekly reading since November 2023 except last week's, and 1.29% above the 6.27% of a year ago. On a $1.5 million purchase it costs roughly $1,570 more per month than the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99% and about $1,300 more than a year ago. One week down is a pause, not a turn, but it is the first time since summer that the direction has helped buyers.

🏡 Active Listings — 1,906

↓ Down 0.6% from last week  |  ↑ Up 46.8% year over year Active listings slipped 11 to 1,906, a second consecutive weekly decline and 3.6% below the record 1,978 set on September 30th. The seasonal drawdown is under way but still gentle; in each of the past four years, the steeper declines arrived in late October and November. Inventory remains 46.8% above the 1,298 of a year ago, the smallest year-over-year gap since early September because last fall's count was also shrinking, but the market is still carrying roughly 600 more homes than it did at this point in 2025.

📝 Pending Sales — 90

↓ Down 10.9% from last week  |  ↓ Down 4.3% year over year Pending sales fell to 90, down 10.9% from last week's 101 and 4.3% below the 94 of a year ago. Read this one with the calendar in hand. The week that holds Columbus Day has produced a lower pending count than the week before it in each of the past five years, and last year's comparison week carried the same holiday, so the year-over-year figure is a fair match while the week-over-week drop is partly seasonal noise. The five-week average of 102 tells the steadier story: demand is holding near the levels of the past month, neither recovering nor sliding further.

📦 Months of Inventory — 4.87

↑ Up 11.6% from last week's 4.36  |  ↑ Up 52.8% year over year MOI rose to 4.87, up 11.6% from last week and 52.8% above the 3.19 of a year ago. It is the fourth consecutive week above 4 (4.20, 4.79, 4.36, 4.87), the longest buyer-favored stretch of 2026, and the highest reading since the July 4th holiday week. Part of this week's jump is the holiday itself, since fewer pendings push the ratio up, so treat 4.87 as a ceiling reading rather than a new level. The five-week average, which smooths the holiday, sits at 4.41, still well above the line.

🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,405,000

↓ Down 1.7% from last week's $1,430,000  |  ↓ Down 10.4% year over year The rolling 30-day median fell to $1,405,000, down 1.7% from last week and 10.4% below the $1,567,500 of a year ago, the first double-digit year-over-year decline since mid-September. Four of the past six weeks have now printed at or below $1,405,000, a level the series had not touched since December 2025. Mix still moves a 30-day median, and this week's closing count of 78 is small, so the exact figure will wander, but the direction has been consistent since mid-August: down about 12% from the $1.6 million readings of late July. Closed sales came in at 78, down 24.3% from last week and 18.8% below the 96 of a year ago, the lowest weekly count since the Labor Day week.

🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means

The two forces that pushed this market into buyer-favored territory, record supply and the most expensive financing in three years, both softened a notch this week: listings are 72 below the peak and rates stepped back 7 basis points. Neither has reversed. MOI has now held above 4 for a month, the median is 10% below last year, and buyers have roughly 600 more homes to choose from than they did a year ago. What to watch next: whether rates follow this week's dip with a second one, and whether pending sales bounce back above 100 once the holiday week clears. Those two numbers will tell us whether the fourth quarter is a slow grind or the start of a thaw.

🏠 For Sellers

Sellers, this week's rate relief is small, but it is the first time in two months the headline has moved in your favor, and inventory is starting its seasonal slide. Use both. A buyer who was priced out at 7.63% is watching for exactly this, and the sellers who win the fourth quarter will be the ones already priced to the newest closings when those buyers come back. The median is 10% below last year; a list price built on 2025 comparables will sit while the 2026-priced homes sell. Launch sharp, present at your best from day one, and treat the first serious offer as the market speaking, not as an opening bid. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.

🔑 For Buyers

Buyers, you have had the leverage for a month and this week added a little room on the payment: 7 basis points is about $70 a month on a typical purchase, small, but the direction counts. Inventory is 47% above last year, the median is 10% lower, and MOI is at 4.87. The clock is the seasonal inventory decline, which in the past four years accelerated from late October into November, with the best-presented homes going first. Get fully underwritten now so you can move inside a week, price your offer to the newest comparables rather than the list price, and ask for a rate buydown as a seller concession, which is worth more at 7.56% than it has been in years. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA Source: NWMLS listing data, compiled and analyzed by Tony Meier & Team through Eastside Market Watch. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.