🏡 October Ends with a Two-Year Low for the Median and the Fewest Pending Sales in Six Octobers | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 10-28-26

5 Min. Read Audio Version Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 807 Closed Eastside Sales October closed the way it started: more supply than demand, and prices giving ground. Pending sales slipped to 77, a second straight October low for our six-year weekly series, even as rates eased a third week to 7.35%. Months of inventory edged up to 5.47, more than double a year ago and the highest non-holiday reading we have recorded. The rolling median fell to $1,395,000, the lowest in the two years we have tracked it and 11.0% below last year. Active listings declined a fourth week to 1,832, and closings came in at 90.

💰 Interest Rates — 7.35%

↓ Down 3 bp from last week's 7.38%  |  ↑ Up 1.08% year over year Rates eased 3 basis points to 7.35%, a third consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading since September 23rd. The 30-year has now retraced 28 of the 91 basis points it added between mid-August and the 7.63% peak on October 7th. It is still 1.08% above the 6.27% of a year ago, and on a $1.5 million purchase it costs roughly $1,350 more per month than the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99%, though about $290 less than it did three weeks ago. The direction has been helpful for three weeks; the level is still the highest any fall buyer has faced since 2023.

🏡 Active Listings — 1,832

↓ Down 1.1% from last week  |  ↑ Up 48.9% year over year Active listings fell 21 to 1,832, a fourth consecutive decline and 146 homes, or 7.4%, below the September 30th record. The year-over-year gap actually widened this week, to 48.9% above the 1,230 of a year ago, because last fall's count was dropping faster than this one is. The next two weeks are where the seasonal decline usually bites: in each of the past three years, the first week of November took 7% to 10% off the count in a single week. Even so, the arithmetic points to roughly 850 to 900 homes still active at year end, against 612 last December.

📝 Pending Sales — 77

↓ Down 2.5% from last week  |  ↓ Down 27.4% year over year Pending sales fell to 77, down 2.5% from last week's 79 and 27.4% below the 106 of a year ago. That is the lowest non-holiday reading since January 14th and the second consecutive week below any October count in our six-year weekly series. The five-week average has dropped to 88, the lowest since early February. Three weeks of easing rates have not moved this number, and the seasonal pattern runs against it from here: in every year we have tracked, pending sales fell further through November. Demand is not collapsing, but it is thin, and it is being asked to absorb a record supply.

📦 Months of Inventory — 5.47

↑ Up 1.4% from last week's 5.39  |  ↑ Up 104.3% year over year MOI edged up to 5.47, 1.4% above last week and more than double the 2.68 of a year ago. It is the sixth consecutive week above 4, the longest buyer-favored stretch of 2026, and again the highest reading in any non-holiday week since our weekly series began in 2021; only the July 4th holiday week's 5.78 is higher. The five-week average has reached 4.98. The ratio is rising slowly now rather than jumping, because supply and demand are shrinking together, but a market with 5.5 months of inventory heading into November is firmly in buyer-favored territory.

🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,395,000

↓ Down 1.4% from last week's $1,415,000  |  ↓ Down 11.0% year over year The rolling 30-day median fell to $1,395,000, down 1.4% from last week and 11.0% below the $1,567,500 of a year ago. It is the lowest reading since we began tracking the rolling median in January 2025, the third straight week with a double-digit year-over-year decline, and 12.8% below the $1.6 million readings of late July. The 30-day median moves with the mix of homes that close, so no single week is proof, but eight consecutive weeks between $1.39 million and $1.44 million is a level. Closed sales came in at 90, down 13.5% from last week but 9.8% above the 82 of a year ago, when the comparison week was unusually quiet.

🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means

Six weeks into buyer-favored territory, the market has settled into a pattern: supply drifts down with the season, demand drifts down faster, and prices keep adjusting to the buyers who remain. Rates have given back 28 basis points and it has not changed buyer behavior yet, which says the adjustment underway is about price, not just payment. November will test both sides. Sellers who are still on the market will see competition thin out as listings drop, which helps, but they will also see fewer buyers, which does not. The homes that close between now and the holidays will be the ones priced to the last 30 days of sales, and the data says that number is now about $1.4 million for the typical Eastside home, down from $1.6 million in July.

🏠 For Sellers

Sellers, the seasonal relief is arriving, and it will not be enough on its own. Listings are falling, which thins your competition, but pending sales have dropped to the lowest October level in six years, so the buyers you are competing for are fewer as well. The median has now spent eight weeks at or near $1.4 million. If your price was set against summer closings, the market has moved roughly 12% away from it, and no amount of November inventory decline closes that gap. Price to the newest per-square-foot comparables, present the home at its best, and treat a serious offer in the first two weeks as the market's verdict. The alternative is carrying the listing into a January market with fewer buyers still. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.

🔑 For Buyers

Buyers, you have the best combination of conditions in years: 5.47 months of inventory, a median that is 11% below last year and at a two-year low, the fewest competing buyers of any October we have tracked, and rates that have eased three weeks running. What is changing is selection, not leverage. Inventory typically drops 7% to 10% in the first week of November, and the best-presented homes go first. Act on the homes that fit, price your offer to the last 30 days of closings rather than the list price, and ask for a rate buydown or closing credit while sellers are motivated to make a deal before the holidays. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA Source: NWMLS listing data, compiled and analyzed by Tony Meier & Team through Eastside Market Watch. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.