🏡 Rates Fall to 7.38%, Pending Sales Fall to 79, and MOI Hits 5.39 | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 10-21-26

5 Min. Read Audio Version Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 807 Closed Eastside Sales The rate relief we hoped for arrived, and the buyers did not. The 30-year fixed fell 18 basis points to 7.38%, the largest one-week decline of 2026 and a second straight drop, yet pending sales slid to 79, the lowest October reading in our six-year weekly series. With listings still 46% above last year, months of inventory climbed to 5.39, the highest non-holiday reading the series has recorded. Active listings fell for a third week to 1,853, closings rebounded to 104 after the holiday week, and the rolling median edged up to $1,415,000, still 11.3% below a year ago.

💰 Interest Rates — 7.38%

↓ Down 18 bp from last week's 7.56%  |  ↑ Up 1.21% year over year Rates fell to 7.38%, down 18 basis points, the largest single-week decline of 2026 and the second in a row. From the 7.63% three-year high two weeks ago, the 30-year has given back 25 of the 91 basis points it added from mid-August to early October, and it is the lowest reading since September 23rd. The level is still punishing: 7.38% remains above every weekly reading from 2025 and all but three weeks of 2024, and 1.21% above the 6.17% of a year ago. On a $1.5 million purchase it costs roughly $1,380 more per month than the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99%, but about $260 less than it did at the 7.63% peak.

🏡 Active Listings — 1,853

↓ Down 2.8% from last week  |  ↑ Up 46.1% year over year Active listings fell 53 to 1,853, a third consecutive weekly decline and 125 homes, or 6.3%, below the September 30th record of 1,978. The seasonal drawdown is now clearly under way, and history says the steep part is just ahead: in each of the past four years the count fell fastest from the first week of November through mid-December. Inventory is still 46.1% above the 1,268 of a year ago, and even a typical 54% to 57% decline from the peak would leave roughly 850 to 900 homes on the market at year end, well above the 612 of last December.

📝 Pending Sales — 79

↓ Down 12.2% from last week  |  ↓ Down 21.8% year over year Pending sales fell to 79, down 12.2% from last week's 90 and 21.8% below the 101 of a year ago. This is the number of the week. There was no holiday to blame: in three of the past five years pending sales recovered in the week after Columbus Day, and in the other two they stayed above 80; this year they fell further. At 79, this is the lowest October reading in our six-year weekly series, below the previous October low of 81 in 2022, and the lowest non-holiday count since mid-January. The five-week average has dropped to 95, its lowest since late February. Lower rates have not yet pulled buyers back in, and the gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers will pay is where the market is stuck.

📦 Months of Inventory — 5.39

↑ Up 10.8% from last week's 4.87  |  ↑ Up 86.2% year over year MOI rose to 5.39, up 10.8% from last week and 86.2% above the 2.90 of a year ago. It is the fifth consecutive week above 4, the longest buyer-favored stretch of 2026, and the highest reading in any non-holiday week since our weekly series began in 2021; the only higher prints (5.78 in the July 4th week, 5.26 and 5.23 in two Christmas weeks) all carried holiday distortions. The five-week average is 4.72. Supply is shrinking, but demand is shrinking faster.

🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,415,000

↑ Up 0.7% from last week's $1,405,000  |  ↓ Down 11.3% year over year The rolling 30-day median edged up to $1,415,000, 0.7% above last week but 11.3% below the $1,595,000 of a year ago. That is the second straight double-digit year-over-year decline and the deepest since mid-February. The median has now spent seven consecutive weeks between $1.40 million and $1.44 million, about 12% below the $1.6 million readings of late July, so this is a level, not a blip. Closed sales recovered to 104 after the holiday week's 78, though that is still 18.1% below the 127 closings of a year ago.

🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means

For eight weeks the story was rates driving buyers out. This week rates finally moved the other way and buyers kept leaving, which says the problem is now price as much as payment. Sellers are holding to summer numbers; buyers are looking at a median 11% below last year. Until those two views meet, MOI keeps climbing even as listings fall. Shrinking supply will help sellers eventually, but with 1,853 homes active and 79 going pending a week, that help is weeks away. What to watch: whether a third week of rate relief finally shows up in pendings, and how fast the November inventory drop arrives.

🏠 For Sellers

Sellers, this is the clearest signal of the year, and it is not a comfortable one. Rates fell by the most in 2026 and buyer activity fell anyway, to the lowest October level we have recorded. Buyers are not waiting for cheaper money; they are waiting for prices that match the last 30 days of closings. If your home has been on the market more than three weeks without a serious offer, the market has already answered the price question, and the seasonal inventory decline will not change that answer before the holidays. Reprice to the newest per-square-foot closings now, while there are still buyers in the market, rather than in January when there are fewer. If you are deciding whether to list this fall, the answer depends on whether you will price to today's comparables from day one. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.

🔑 For Buyers

Buyers, the numbers this week are all in your favor: the biggest rate drop of the year, 5.39 months of inventory, a median 11% below last year, and fewer competing buyers than in any October we have tracked. This is the window. The leverage is strongest on homes active 30 days or more, where the seller has already watched the market pass. Make offers grounded in the last 30 days of closings, ask for a rate buydown or closing credit as part of the deal, and keep your financing fully underwritten so you can close on your timeline. Every week from here, inventory falls and the best homes clear first; the leverage is real but the selection is shrinking. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA Source: NWMLS listing data, compiled and analyzed by Tony Meier & Team through Eastside Market Watch. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.