🏡 The Fall Market Settles In: Lower Rates, Fewer Listings, and a Wide Open Window for Buyers | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 11-04-26

6 Min. Read Audio Version Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 808 Closed Eastside Sales November opened with the seasonal inventory drop we have been pointing to for a month, and it was not enough. Active listings fell 103 to 1,729, the largest one-week decline of 2026 by count, yet pending sales fell faster, to 69, the lowest first week of November in our six-year weekly series. Months of inventory rose to 5.76, a hair below the all-time high from the July 4th holiday week and the highest clean-week reading we have recorded. Rates eased a fourth straight week to 7.25%, and the rolling median slipped to $1,375,000, a new low for the series and 11.3% below a year ago.

💰 Interest Rates — 7.25%

↓ Down 10 bp from last week's 7.35%  |  ↑ Up 0.88% year over year Rates fell 10 basis points to 7.25%, a fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading since September 16th. From the 7.63% peak on October 7th the 30-year has given back 38 basis points, more than a third of its late-summer climb, and the year-over-year gap has narrowed to 0.88% above the 6.37% of a year ago, the smallest since early September. On a $1.5 million purchase, 7.25% costs roughly $1,250 more per month than the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99% and about $390 less than it did at the peak four weeks ago.

🏡 Active Listings — 1,729

↓ Down 5.6% from last week  |  ↑ Up 55.9% year over year Active listings fell 103 to 1,729, down 5.6% in a single week, the largest weekly decline of 2026 by count and a fifth consecutive drop. The count is now 249 homes, or 12.6%, below the September 30th record. The first week of November has brought the sharpest drop of the season in each of the past three years (7% to 10%), so this was expected, and this year's was a little smaller than usual. Because last year's count fell 10% in the same week, the year-over-year gap widened to 55.9% above the 1,109 of a year ago, the widest since April. Supply is leaving the market, but not as fast as it left last fall.

📝 Pending Sales — 69

↓ Down 10.4% from last week  |  ↓ Down 25.0% year over year Pending sales fell to 69, down 10.4% from last week's 77 and 25.0% below the 92 of a year ago. It is the lowest first-week-of-November reading in our six-year weekly series (prior years ranged from 79 to 112), the lowest non-holiday count since January 14th, and it drags the five-week average to 83, the lowest of the year. Four weeks of easing rates have not reached this number, and the seasonal path from here is down: in every year we have tracked, pending sales in Thanksgiving week were lower than in the first week of November.

📦 Months of Inventory — 5.76

↑ Up 5.3% from last week's 5.47  |  ↑ Up 107.2% year over year MOI rose to 5.76, up 5.3% from last week and more than double the 2.78 of a year ago. It is the seventh consecutive week above 4, the longest buyer-favored stretch of 2026, and the second-highest reading in the six-year weekly series, two hundredths below the 5.78 set in the July 4th holiday week. Before mid-October, every reading above 5 in our history carried a holiday distortion; the last three have not. The five-week average has climbed to 5.17. Supply is finally shrinking, but demand is shrinking faster.

🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,375,000

↓ Down 1.4% from last week's $1,395,000  |  ↓ Down 11.3% year over year The rolling 30-day median fell to $1,375,000, down 1.4% from last week and 11.3% below the $1,550,000 of a year ago. It is the third straight weekly decline, a new low for the two years we have tracked the rolling median, the fourth consecutive week with a double-digit year-over-year decline, and 14.1% below the $1.6 million readings of late July. Mix moves this number and 83 closings is a small sample, but nine consecutive weeks at or below $1.44 million, with the last three stepping lower, is a trend. Closed sales came in at 83, down 7.8% from last week and 25.2% below the 111 of a year ago.

🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means

The seasonal relief sellers were waiting for arrived on schedule, and the market barely noticed, because buyers left faster than listings did. That is what 5.76 months of inventory with falling supply means. Rates have dropped 38 basis points in four weeks and pending sales have fallen four weeks in a row, which settles the question we raised in October: this is a price adjustment, not a payment problem. The median is 14% below its summer level, and the homes closing are the ones priced to that reality. Between now and the holidays inventory will keep falling, roughly 20% from here if last November is a guide, but so will demand. The sellers who close in the next six weeks will be the ones priced to the last 30 days of sales; the rest face the same decision in January with fewer buyers.

🏠 For Sellers

Sellers, the inventory decline is real and it is helping, but it does not change the answer. Buyer activity is at its lowest level for this week of the year in six years, and the buyers who remain are paying 7.25% and reading a median that has fallen 14% since July. The question is simple: is your price built on closings from the last 30 days, or on something older? If it is older, the market has already moved away from it, and the gap has widened in three of the past four weeks. Reprice now, present the home at its best, and be ready to meet the first serious buyer, because each one is scarcer than the last. If you can wait until spring, there is a case for waiting; if you cannot, the price has to lead. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.

🔑 For Buyers

Buyers, this is the most favorable mix of conditions in the six years we have tracked this market: 5.76 months of inventory, a median 11% below last year and 14% below summer, rates 38 basis points off their peak, and the fewest competing buyers of any early November on record. What is working against you is selection, which tightened by 103 homes in a week. Focus on homes active 30 days or more, where sellers have already watched the market pass, price your offer to the last 30 days of closings, and ask for a rate buydown or closing credit while sellers are motivated to close before the holidays. The leverage will still be here in December; the home you want may not. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA Source: NWMLS listing data, compiled and analyzed by Tony Meier & Team through Eastside Market Watch. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.