🏡 A Rate Dip, a Buyer Rebound, and an Inflation Report That May Cut It Short | Seattle’s Eastside Real Estate Update 11-11-26

6 Min. Read Audio Version Tony Meier | Windermere Real Estate | 37 Years Experience | 808 Closed Eastside Sales Lower rates finally brought buyers back, and then the rates went away. Daily mortgage rates touched 7.17% on November 5th and 6th, the lowest since late September, and pending sales jumped 42% to 98, the biggest one-week gain since July. With active listings down a sixth straight week to 1,662, months of inventory fell from 5.76 to 3.90, the first reading below 4 since mid-September. Then Tuesday's inflation report showed prices rising again, rates jumped 12 basis points in a day, and the week closed at 7.30%, above last week. Closings slowed to 71, and the rolling median rose to $1,400,000, 9.7% below a year ago.

💰 Interest Rates — 7.30%

↑ Up 5 bp from last week's 7.25%  |  ↑ Up 1.01% year over year The weekly reading rose 5 basis points to 7.30%, the first increase in five weeks, but the daily path tells the real story. Rates fell to 7.17% on November 5th and held there through Monday, the lowest since September 22nd, and that is the rate most of this week's buyers locked. On Tuesday, November 10th, the inflation report showed prices rising again and the 30-year jumped 12 basis points in one day, the third-largest single-day increase of 2026, to close the week at 7.30%. That is still 33 basis points below the October 7th peak and 1.01% above the 6.29% of a year ago; on a $1.5 million purchase it costs roughly $1,300 more per month than the pre-conflict baseline of 5.99%. The window that opened at 7.17% has narrowed, and the direction heading into next week is up.

🏡 Active Listings — 1,662

↓ Down 3.9% from last week  |  ↑ Up 58.3% year over year Active listings fell 67 to 1,662, a sixth consecutive weekly decline and 316 homes, or 16.0%, below the September 30th record. The seasonal drawdown is running on schedule; last year the count fell about 20% between the first week of November and Thanksgiving. Because last fall's decline was steeper early, the year-over-year gap widened to 58.3% above the 1,050 of a year ago, the widest since April. Fewer listings each week means less competition for the sellers who remain, but supply is still far above any November in the series.

📝 Pending Sales — 98

↑ Up 42.0% from last week  |  ↑ Up 32.4% year over year Pending sales rose to 98, up 42.0% from last week's 69 and 32.4% above the 74 of a year ago, the largest one-week gain since the post-July 4th rebound and the highest count since October 7th. The timing makes it stronger, not weaker: this week holds Veterans Day, which produced a lower pending count than the week before in each of the past four years, and last year's comparison week held the same holiday. One week does not make a trend, and the five-week average of 83 is still the lowest of the year, but after four straight declines this is clear evidence that the drop to 7.17% pulled buyers back in. The question is whether they stay now that the rate has moved back up.

📦 Months of Inventory — 3.90

↓ Down 32.3% from last week's 5.76  |  ↑ Up 19.1% year over year MOI fell to 3.90, down 32.3% from last week's 5.76 and the largest one-week decline since July. It is the first reading below 4 since September 16th, ending a seven-week run in buyer-favored territory, and it lands at the top of the balanced range. Both inputs moved at once: fewer listings and far more pendings. The five-week average is still 5.08, so the market has not left buyer-favored conditions, but this is the first week since mid-September that the direction favored sellers. Whether it holds depends on where rates go from here.

🏠 Median Sold Price (Rolling 30-Day) — $1,400,000

↑ Up 1.8% from last week's $1,375,000  |  ↓ Down 9.7% year over year The rolling 30-day median rose to $1,400,000, up 1.8% from last week and 9.7% below the $1,550,000 of a year ago, the first weekly increase in three weeks and the first single-digit year-over-year decline since October 7th. The level is unchanged in substance: ten consecutive weeks between $1.37 million and $1.44 million, about 12.5% below the $1.6 million readings of late July. Closed sales came in at 71, down 14.5% from last week and 1.4% above the 70 of a year ago, the lowest weekly count since the Labor Day week.

🔍 The Big Picture — What This All Means

This week answered one question and raised another. The answer: buyers are there, and they respond to rates. A drop to 7.17% produced a 42% jump in pending sales, pulled MOI below 4, and stopped the median's slide, in a week that usually slows for Veterans Day. The new question: what happens now that Tuesday's inflation report took 12 basis points of that relief back in a day. If rates settle near 7.30%, the rebound may hold at a lower level; if inflation keeps pushing them up, this week will look like a one-time catch-up by buyers who had waited since October. The five-week averages, 83 pendings and 5.08 months of inventory, still describe a buyer-favored market, and the price buyers acted on is about $1.4 million, 12.5% below July. What to watch: whether pending holds above 85 with rates back above 7.25%.

🏠 For Sellers

Sellers, this is the first encouraging week since September, and it comes with a warning label. The buyers who came back did so at 7.17%, and they did not pay summer prices; the median is still 12.5% below July. They bought the homes priced to the last 30 days of closings, and with 98 pendings against 1,662 listings there is still plenty of competition to sort the well-priced from the rest. Rates have already given back part of the drop that brought those buyers in, so the window may be shorter than it looked on Monday. If your home is priced to current comparables, have the presentation and showing schedule ready now. If it is priced to older comparables, the buyers who just returned walked past it, and the next six weeks have fewer of them. We have done extensive analysis on what this shift means for sellers in each Eastside sub-market and would welcome the opportunity to walk you through what the data shows for your specific area and home.

🔑 For Buyers

Buyers, the leverage is still yours, but this week is a reminder that you are not alone and that rates can move against you fast. Pending sales jumped 42%, the best-priced homes are drawing real interest again, inventory is falling 4% to 6% a week, and Tuesday showed how quickly one inflation report can take 12 basis points back. Conditions remain firmly in your favor: a median 9.7% below last year, 1,662 homes to choose from, and rates still 33 basis points off their peak. Lock once you are under contract rather than waiting for a better number, price your offer to the last 30 days of closings, ask for the buydown or closing credit, and move decisively on the right house rather than waiting for a better one in a shrinking pool. If we can help you think through what this means for your move, we are here. Tony Meier & Team — Windermere Real Estate / NE, Kirkland, WA Source: NWMLS listing data, compiled and analyzed by Tony Meier & Team through Eastside Market Watch. Statistics not compiled or published by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.